Crypto currency discussion

[tsorfas]

Bitcoin, Litecoin, whatever crypto coin. What do you think about it?

[PhilB]

Obviously it's highly volatile and speculative at this point, but I think there is value there.

I see merit in having a currency that:
(a) cannot be devalued or inflated by any government for its own purposes,
(b) can be sent anywhere in the world cheaply and easily, and
(c) can be used for micropayments.

I have not gotten deeply into this, especially in the sense of not having investigated the myriad of competing options.
But I have dabbled a bit in bitcoin, and see some real usefulness there.
Downsides are that it is still a PITA to use for most things, and there are security and privacy questions.

I think in the long run there will be one of two results, with not much in between:
(1) It (or one of them) becomes a genuine currency with world impact, and those who guess right about this will do very well, or
(2) they will all fail (or be squashed by governments), and be worth nothing.

As with most gambles, don't bet more than you can afford to lose.

PhilB

[jasnmar]

Just to be argumentative

Bitcoin is effectively failing tests b and c right now. Average fees are somewhere in the $5 neighborhood, making it not cheap to send anywhere, and making micropayments impossible.

There are many in the BTC universe who see bitcoin as more of a settlement layer than a currency. I don't think that matches the vision that Satoshi set out in the original white paper. I think that the original intent was much closer to what you describe, but that isn't where Bitcoin is right now.

All of that said there are plenty of imaginary millionaires in the world right now because of bitcoin (as well as at least a few real ones). In the past few year the value has gone from a few bucks (or less, depending on when you start counting) to thousands of dollars. There are plenty of investments you could have done worse on.

In my opinion none of the digital / crypto currencies are any more a fiat currency than any of the government "recognized" currencies in the world today. The Bolivar Fuerte is an interesting example.

[PhilB]

Yes, bitcoin is not doing well at B or C right now (although if you're sending money internationally, that $5 is a lot less than most other ways to send it, and well worth it for normal size payments of, say, a few hundred dollars). But these failings are not inherent to cryptocurrency, or even necessarily to bitcoin. They are solvable problems.

I do think bitcoin is less of a fiat currency than the government ones, just because it can't be devalued or inflated by government fiat.

I know quite a few people who have made quite a good bit (so to speak) of money speculating on cryptocurrencies. I've made some small gains; we'll see where it goes from here.

PhilB

[Chippertheripper]

I have a tiny chunk of bc and an even smaller chunk of ethereum. I’d like to figure out how to use it someday.

[Kurlon]

There is no fee to transfer bitcoin, get destination wallet address, send coin, push update to blockchain via your client, done.

That said, if bitcoin/etc take off at ALL, government will regulate them into obscurity.

[capitalcrew]

All crypto is failing A right now, China has been doing pretty well manipulating the market up and down AFAIK

[tsorfas]

All crypto is failing A right now, China has been doing pretty well manipulating the market up and down AFAIK

Define failing? I don’t understand it but given almost all crypto currencies are at all time high I don’t think it’s failing RIGHT NOW

[PhilB]

All crypto is failing A right now, China has been doing pretty well manipulating the market up and down AFAIK

Manipulation is different from devaluation, inflation, or government fiat. *Anything* with a price can be manipulated. You can, if you have enough buying power, manipulate the prices of silver and gold. That doesn't make those fiat currencies, or count as being "devalued or inflated by any government for its own purposes".

PhilB

[JettaJayGLS]

I feel strongly that crypto-currency will be the future, see the first half of Phil's post. Cash used to be backed by gold. Times change, strategies change. We're due for a shake up.

It won't be bitcoin, ratifying the ledger gets increasingly difficult all the while the reward gets smaller. Right now, good miners are able to turn a profit. If bitcoin were to take over you would see a giant boom as the transition occurs. I don't think technology could keep up with this boom and you will no longer be able to mine at a profit. Without ratification of the ledger, the system is no longer secure, and it fails.

I haven't invested massive amounts of time into this, but plan to at some point. I've been stock piling a massive folder of email articles my girlfriends father keeps on sending me.

If you have an hour, this is an incredibly entertaining podcast on the founding of Z-cash. It ALMOST seems fake that this is how it was done.
The Ceremony
- Radiolab

[Chippertheripper]

In my mind, I just want to use this for online transactions. I feel like I’ll always be converting usd to it, but I hope this wipes away my need for PayPal and the like.

[maxim_X]

Coincidentally this comes up one here. I’m looking to buy 1000 ripple in hopes to be a millionaire in a few years. The chances of it performing like bitcoin are probably so low it’s not worth mentioning, but it’s worth the $400 to find out I think.

[jasnmar]

I have a tiny chunk of bc and an even smaller chunk of ethereum. I’d like to figure out how to use it someday.

Anything you can buy on Amazon Purse

[Chippertheripper]

Anything you can buy on Amazon Purse

I currently have my crypto through coinbase. Kraken was too fuckijng complicated.
edit: thats probably another part of the teething that's going to sting, the pita of having to move stuff through hosts. I'm at my limits of technological function on this stuff.

[jasnmar]

Yeah. All of the various wallet option / forks of different currencies / ways to send stuff from person A to person B certainly need to get smoother for this to be widely adopted.

To even consider actually using it today you have to be reasonably tech savvy. Most people I see can't figure out how to use Android / Apple pay, much less some crypto wallet.

[Chippertheripper]

yeah, my bank doesn't support Apple Pay. I don't have a card with a chip either. in fact, I'm still behind currently with having 2 good thumbs.

[capitalcrew]

Coincidentally this comes up one here. I’m looking to buy 1000 ripple in hopes to be a millionaire in a few years. The chances of it performing like bitcoin are probably so low it’s not worth mentioning, but it’s worth the $400 to find out I think.

XRP has more practical potential than any of the others I think. There's a pretty clear goal there and their target isn't even little guys, it's banks. If they can make those foreign transactions instantaneous like they want to, while also making them cheaper.. there's a lot of potential there. That's a place I'd like to stash a couple grand myself.

[jhawley]

is this similar to Forex(sp). Ive been seeing some kid I follow on instagram making stupid money off of it.

[Chippertheripper]

similar yes.
there is a certain amount of risk inherent with any investment, but currently I can't see the downside to buying some of each. that includes bitcoin, lightcoin, etherium, forex and ripple. as leaders emerge among the crypto market, smaller currencies will be absorbed by more powerful ones (in my mind), and maybe even cryptos that are about to be flopped could be saved, just so the larger ones can steal their infrastructure.

whatever the thing turns out to be that allowed you to go to a machine with your virtual wallet and take the contents within and withdraw cold hard cash (wherever you happen to be in the world), thats the thing that I really want to invest in.

[Paul_E_D]

I wish I had invested a couple of years ago. I'd be retired. Still hesitant, but will likely throw down a little cash soon.

[Chippertheripper]

the other thing that's going to be real valuable is the app that lets you buy whatever crypto you want from your phone. coinbase only currently hosts btc, ltc, and eth.
access is the biggest hurdle for me right now. well that, and lack of capital to begin with.

[PhilB]

Yeah. All of the various wallet option / forks of different currencies / ways to send stuff from person A to person B certainly need to get smoother for this to be widely adopted.

To even consider actually using it today you have to be reasonably tech savvy. Most people I see can't figure out how to use Android / Apple pay, much less some crypto wallet.

Yes, that's a major barrier. All of that -- it's too complex in just being used and stored.

And I don't know bitcoin (and others like it) can be sustained long term. For bitcoin, there's an end limit coded in of a maximum of 20M bitcoins. Currently, they use these to pay people to "mine" them, giving out bitcoin in return for processing of the transactions. Once all the bitcoin has been created, how will processing of transactions be paid for?

PhilB

[jasnmar]

The working theory, as I understand it, is that once all of the Bitcoins have been mined then "miner fees" (which aren't exclusively "creation of new bitcoin") will have to come from transaction "fees" (transactions being a big part of what "miners" do). This is one of the reasons that people get wrapped around the block size debate. This is one of the confusing things about the "miners". Unlike mining for actual resources (like gold, or whatever) they aren't just creating new bitcoin, but are also maintaining the "ledger" (i.e. keeping track of all of the transactions). Today they get paid through both transaction fees and "creation" of bitcoin.

This implies that fees will have to increase (assuming everything else stays the same).

There are, however, other things that could changes.
Many people believe that increasing the block size will reduce "cost" of transactions, as less blocks will be needed (therefore requiring less mining).
Some people believe that the cost of mining will continue to fall as additional hardware is developed to solve these specific problems more efficiently than they are solved today.

I only have a rudimentary understanding of all of this so I could be misconfusifying things.

[Chippertheripper]

Yeah. Those words. Don’t understand them much. Gonna buy anyways.

[snwbrdr435]

I've been tracking this for a while now and picked up some bitcoin and litecoin in the spring. It will be interesting to see where things will go as we move into the new year. Back in Oct I was thinking bitcoin would break 10k sometime in December, it was nice to see it in the mid 9k range when I got back to reality sunday evening.