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Crypto currency discussion

  1. #376
    Member k1200s's Avatar
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    Re: Crypto currency discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by Falko View Post
    Wow. If a country that backs a currency is very heavy in debt, guess who wants their currency? Or wanna speculate on how much interest they will have to pay for a loan if paid back in their own currency? Or maybe wanna look at one of the factors that goes into currency exchange rates. Debt has a lot more influence than you think.
    Correlation vs causation. Debt could make a currency less attractive but isn't what drives its value. Using your logic you would say that seasons primarily drive the stock market not earnings because it goes up in spring and fall, when it is a correlative relationship not a causal one.

    Do people think at all before replying ?

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    Last edited by k1200s; 05-10-18 at 03:06 PM.

  2. #377
    Super Moderator TheIglu's Avatar
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    Re: Crypto currency discussion

    Still waiting to see where I've told people to buy crypto.

    Or, is simply talking about it tantamount to giving blowies to terrorists?


    So just to be clear:

    Massive national debt and quantitative easing have no relation to the value of that countries currency (ya know, like INFUCKINGFLATION).

    ----


    Talking about cryptocurrency is supporting ISIS.




    Just making sure I understand the logic here. You *should* be able to account for it. HA!

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    Last edited by TheIglu; 05-10-18 at 03:09 PM.
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  3. #378
    Member k1200s's Avatar
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    Re: Crypto currency discussion

    You trying to refute my arguments with utter nonsense that you made up on the spot is enough to warrant a response lol

    The alternative is to allow "national debt = currency" to go uncorrected

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    Last edited by k1200s; 05-10-18 at 03:08 PM.

  4. #379
    Super Moderator TheIglu's Avatar
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    Re: Crypto currency discussion

    Arguments have points. Just shouting at the moon that it doesn't exist isn't arguing.

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  5. #380
    Member k1200s's Avatar
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    Re: Crypto currency discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by TheIglu View Post
    Arguments have points. Just shouting at the moon that it doesn't exist isn't arguing.

    Great point

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  6. #381
    Lifer Falko's Avatar
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    Re: Crypto currency discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by k1200s View Post
    Correlation vs causation. Debt could make a currency less attractive but isn't what drives its value. Using your logic you would say that seasons primarily drive the stock market not earnings because it goes up in spring and fall, when it is a correlative relationship not a causal one.

    Do people think at all before replying ?
    Nope, people look at earnings when deciding which stock to trade on. Just like people look at a country's debt ratio (along with other things) when valuing their currency or setting borrowing rates.

    Given what I've been reading here, I'd say no....

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  7. #382
    Lifer PhilB's Avatar
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    Re: Crypto currency discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by k1200s View Post
    I mean believe what you want, but I think your making a big mistake by investing based on your emotions and not logic. I won't argue with you any more, but if you knew more about how money actually works and where fiat currency's derive their value you might start to see why everyone is beating up on it. I think it is pretty inappropriate to encourage people to buy something you don't understand but you obv arent changing your mind.

    10k invested in the stock market at 25 is $227,000 by the time you are 65, pretty much guaranteed. I'll take my stocks over this any day, and you'd probably do better saving at foxwoods than bit coin, but to each his own. Just don't be relying on my social security taxes for your retirement because that's going away quick.
    Well, that was an awful lot of "replying" to things I didn't say. No wonder you have so many misconceptions about so many things.

    I did not ever say anything about how I invest my money. I did not ever say anything about how much (or even whether) bitcoin I have ever bought or sold. I did not ever say anything about encouraging anyone to buy (or not) crypto-currencies, or anything else.

    Any other conclusions you need to jump to, or fictional "statements" that only exist in your head that you need to argue about?

    Sheesh.

    What I said was that government having complete control of the currency was not a good thing, and I'll stand by that. Considering that U.S. government money policies have cut the value of money in half since I was in college (and by about a factor of *50* since the Fed was implemented in 1913), that kind of eats into that savings. $10K invested in the stock market at 25 may become $225K nominally by 65 (I like your "pretty much guaranteed" line -- no stock market crashes in your world!), but in constant dollars that $225K will be worth less than $100K in purchasing power of the dollars invested, at an opportunity cost of 40 years. That's a much less obvious choice.

    PhilB

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    Last edited by PhilB; 05-10-18 at 07:16 PM.
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  8. #383
    Lifer PhilB's Avatar
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    Re: Crypto currency discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by k1200s View Post
    ... you again showcase a lack of understanding of economics. ...
    lol. Ain't that the pot calling the singularity black.

    Quote Originally Posted by k1200s View Post
    ... The only people actually using crypto are using it for illegal purposes, the rest are speculating. These nefarious orgs are not buying and holding crypto like you and are not taking gains or losses, they are transacting with it as a currency. By buying and selling you are providing them the liquidity to make that possible. If person A, an anti US terrorist, wants to fund A Qaida, all he has to do is go buy a bit coin, which are readily available now and send that untracked coin to al Qaida who then sells it or uses it to purchase illegal goods. They are not an investment fund holding these to speculate, and are not taking gains or losses. You are very literally financing terrorists and this has been brought up by other critics too. ...
    Now that's just precious.

    PhilB

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  9. #384
    Super Moderator TheIglu's Avatar
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    Re: Crypto currency discussion

    Big drop today, almost $100 off ETH, similar percentage losses on Ripple and Bitcoin due to the UpBit raid. I never even heard of that exchange. Crazy SouthKoreanPeople's.

    Big crypto conference in NYC in two weeks. That has historically bumped prices....

    Crazy times, all of it!

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  10. #385
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    Re: Crypto currency discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by k1200s View Post
    Now your agreeing with my first post. Crypto will be gone, blockchain is here to stay. We will see almost every company move their systems to a blockchain system and the feds may apply blockchain to fiat, but there will never be a national decentralized currency.
    Bolding mine, but we will not see this.

    A blockchain is a distributed ledger. It is a type of database. That's it. It isn't magic, it isn't a replacement for all other ledgers, and it isn't a replacement for all other databases. It is a tool. Good at some things, bad at others.

    All fiat money derives its value from what people will pay for it, that is why the fed sells t bills at a discount lol....
    Everything derives its value from what people will pay for it.

    the value of a dollar is determined by how many dollars you will pay today for a dollar in the future
    You are confusing the value of money with the time value of money. They are related, but they are not the same thing.

    meaning a dollar derives its value from public consensus not the national debt
    A dollar derives its value from a lot of sources, these are but two examples.

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    Last edited by number9; 05-15-18 at 03:24 PM.
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  11. #386
    Posting Freak joeswamp's Avatar
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    Re: Crypto currency discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by number9 View Post
    A blockchain is a distributed ledger. It is a type of database. That's it. It isn't magic, it isn't a replacement for all other ledgers, and it isn't a replacement for all other databases. It is a tool. Good at some things, bad at others.
    This is true, but AFAIK blockchains are the first technology to permit:

    • Unique digital objects
    • Transactions without a trusted third party

    This ability to create unique digital objects is actually pretty significant. Up until now, just about anything on the internet could be copied. Now we have unique objects that can be traded.

    The trusted third party thing is also huge. For example: A big part of Wall St's role in the world is to be a trusted third party for trades. As gatekeepers, they manage to suck a ton of capital out of the system. If trusted third parties are unnecessary, this capital could be used for something productive.

    These two features of blockchains permit digital currency to exist, but they also allow lots of other things to exist. I think we're just now starting to figure out what those things are.

    I haven't read this whole thread so apologies if this has been mentioned before...

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  12. #387
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    Re: Crypto currency discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by joeswamp View Post
    The trusted third party thing is also huge. For example: A big part of Wall St's role in the world is to be a trusted third party for trades. As gatekeepers, they manage to suck a ton of capital out of the system. If trusted third parties are unnecessary, this capital could be used for something productive.
    But that's the thing -- you still need trusted third parties, you just need different ones. You now need to trust the code, and you also need to trust that there's not 50.1% of the parties who are out to get you.

    Instead of trusting people, you are now trusting the software. I'm sure the members of The DAO trusted the writers of their smart contract, right up until they stole $50m from them.

    (It is worth noting that you do not need a trusted third party to exchange, you know, cash.)

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  13. #388
    Lifer PhilB's Avatar
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    Re: Crypto currency discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by number9 View Post
    But that's the thing -- you still need trusted third parties, you just need different ones. You now need to trust the code, and you also need to trust that there's not 50.1% of the parties who are out to get you.

    Instead of trusting people, you are now trusting the software. I'm sure the members of The DAO trusted the writers of their smart contract, right up until they stole $50m from them.

    (It is worth noting that you do not need a trusted third party to exchange, you know, cash.)
    The fact that the source is open code means that you don't have to trust the software, you can check it out. Your point about cash is valid, except that cash is physical and must be carried or traded in person, which creates other security issues. The ability to trade securely *at a distance* without a third party is the key.

    PhilB

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  14. #389
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    Re: Crypto currency discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by PhilB View Post
    The fact that the source is open code means that you don't have to trust the software, you can check it out. Your point about cash is valid, except that cash is physical and must be carried or traded in person, which creates other security issues. The ability to trade securely *at a distance* without a third party is the key.

    PhilB
    As someone who has grown up around open source software, this statement is great in theory and terrible in reality. Just off the top of my head, take a look at the
    Heartbleed vulnerability in OpenSSL. That is (or was) a major vulnerability in one of the most widely-used security libraries in existence. And it wasn't discovered for years.

    The idea that Joe Smith can audit source code to determine whether or not he can trust a blockchain is ludicrous.

    Again, blockchain doesn't remove the need for a trusted third party. It just changes who the third party is.

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    Last edited by number9; 05-16-18 at 11:21 AM.
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  15. #390
    Lifer PhilB's Avatar
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    Re: Crypto currency discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by number9 View Post
    ... The idea that Joe Smith can audit source code to determine whether or not he can trust a blockchain is ludicrous.

    Again, blockchain doesn't remove the need for a trusted third party. It just changes who the third party is.
    It also changes *who* gets to *pick* the trusted party, which is critical. You don't have to trust any given party, if you can't verify it yourself, you can choose someone who can, that has no connection or conflict of interest. That changes the entire picture.

    PhilB

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  16. #391
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    Re: Crypto currency discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by PhilB View Post
    It also changes *who* gets to *pick* the trusted party, which is critical. You don't have to trust any given party, if you can't verify it yourself, you can choose someone who can, that has no connection or conflict of interest. That changes the entire picture.

    PhilB
    In other words, we just re-invented escrow services. Or reputation-based selling. Or, you know, some (other) version of a middleman. We are back to where we started!

    The other huge thing with blockchain-based crypto currencies is, what happens if yours gets stolen? The nice thing about blockchain is that new transactions invalidate old ones. You can sell someone something, and they can't return it. That's great for some things. But the other side of that coin (ha ha) is that if someone steals your currency, there are no give-backsies.

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  17. #392
    Lifer PhilB's Avatar
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    Re: Crypto currency discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by number9 View Post
    In other words, we just re-invented escrow services. Or reputation-based selling. Or, you know, some (other) version of a middleman. We are back to where we started! ...
    Well, no. In the cases you just cited, it is still a "trust this guy to be honest" kind of thing. With the source code issue, you (again) can actually check it yourself if you have the time and skill, and even if you don't, the fact that you could is a deterrent to dishonesty about the code. You can also have it checked by multiple independent parties and see if they agree. It *isn't* a "just trust me" situation like before -- it *is* a new possibility.

    The theft thing is a different issue, and applies to some extent to *any* situation where the ideas of property and ownership are used. So no, it isn't some new "huge thing with blockchain-based crypto currencies"; it's the same as with cash, or securities, or bank accounts, or investment funds, or pretty much *anything* else. Anything that is owned, and that can be transferred, can be stolen.

    PhilB

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    Last edited by PhilB; 05-16-18 at 01:14 PM.
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