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Nervous yet? covid-19

  1. #2851
    Fast is contagious JettaJayGLS's Avatar
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    Re: Nervous yet? covid-19


    Quote Originally Posted by Falko View Post
    That all makes sense. But my real question is, the scientists studying it, how do they know it didn't come from the lab if they don't have what the lab has? I could kill someone and leave my DNA. From that they could probably deduce it was a male, good looking, etc. But if they don't have my actual DNA on file, how do they know it was me exactly? If the Wuhan lab had this thing growing/mutating and it "escaped", if we do not have the genome sequences from the Wuhan lab, how do we know that this does/n't match that strain? I'm not saying the Chinese did this, I'm just trying to understand how this works.
    I don't know any more than you. Maybe this scientist has access to the very original genome sequence that China made in the lab, and then they mutated it for 6 years until you couldn't tell anymore then let it out into the world. My tiny brain say's its a possible elaborate scheme. I just don't know why China would have given her access to this super secret genome unless she was helping create it.

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  2. #2852
    Lifer Garandman's Avatar
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    Re: Nervous yet? covid-19

    If you watch some of the 60 Minutes Australia programs from 4-5 months ago, they provided an interesting perspective. They reported on Chinese whistleblowers being "silenced" and had this episode on a wet market (not the one in Wuhan).

    BTW Australia has a couple thousand active cases out of a population of 25 million: lower than any US state.


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    Last edited by Garandman; 09-18-20 at 09:14 AM.
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  3. #2853
    Lifer Garandman's Avatar
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    Re: Nervous yet? covid-19

    This article is being referenced by media outlets. It traces the outbreak to bats. As a layman find it almost incomprehensible.

    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41564-020-0771-4

    News article. Another earlier article suggests these bat viruses have been identified earlier, going back to 1949-1982.

    Months into the coronavirus pandemic, researchers are still investigating the actual event where the crossover of the novel coronavirus from animals to humans occurred. A team of scientists may have discovered the answer to the question many have been asking for months, according to a study published in Nature Microbiology.

    The group of scientists from the United States, China, and Europe compared mutation patterns of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, to other viruses, and created an evolutionary history of the related viruses. They discovered the lineage responsible for producing the virus that created the COVID-19 pandemic has been present in bats, according to the study.

    “Collectively our analyses point to bats being the primary reservoir for the SARS-CoV-2 lineage. While it is possible that pangolins, or another hitherto undiscovered species, may have acted as an intermediate host facilitating transmission to humans, current evidence is consistent with the virus having evolved in bats resulting in bat sarbecoviruses that can replicate in the upper respiratory tract of both humans and pangolins," the study authors said in the published report.

    “The lineage giving rise to SARS-CoV-2 has been circulating unnoticed in bats for decades,” the authors wrote.

    the researchers said that SARS-CoV-2 is similar genetically (about 96%) to the RaTG13 coronavirus found in a sample of the Rhinolophus affinis horseshoe bat in 2013 in Yunnan province, China, but it diverged from RaTG13 back in 1969.

    “The ability to estimate divergence times after disentangling recombination histories, which is something we developed in this collaboration, may lead to insights into the origins of many different viral pathogens,” Principal investigator, Philippe Lemey, with the Department of Evolutionary and Computational Virology, KE Leuven, said in the release.
    https://www.foxnews.com/health/where...iginated-study

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    Last edited by Garandman; 09-18-20 at 10:48 AM.
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  4. #2854
    Burns retinas nhbubba's Avatar
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    Re: Nervous yet? covid-19

    The last time I bothered to click into this the prevailing story I was reading was that there were details about this virus that most experts felt were just too hard to manufacture. The virus is just too novel. Only nature could create something like this.

    FWIW some of the conditions in those "wet markets" are a scientists worst nightmare. Stuff that they'd love to try, but ethics rules prevent. I personally find it entirely believable that this is a cross between two animal flues that made the jump to humans.

    I also feel that China should be pressured to do something about the conditions in those wet markets. They are clearly not safe. And now that China is connected to the rest of the world the consequences of their poor public health policy has impact on us all. We (the rest of the world, the UN, someone) should sanction them.

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  5. #2855
    Lifer Garandman's Avatar
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    Re: Nervous yet? covid-19

    Started to slog through the article, and footnotes. One of the first footnotes noted:

    Among the first 425 patients with confirmed NCIP, the median age was 59 years and 56% were male. The majority of cases (55%) with onset before January 1, 2020, were linked to the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market, as compared with 8.6% of the subsequent cases.
    But here’s an example from the report.

    Among the 68  sequences in the aligned sarbecovirus sequence set, 67 show evidence of mosaicism (all Dunn–Sidak-corrected P < 4 × 10–4 and 3SEQ14), indicating involvement in homologous recombination either directly with identifiable parentals or in their deeper shared evolutionary history—that is, due to shared ancestral recombination events. This is evidence for numerous recombination events occurring in the evolutionary history of the sarbecoviruses; specifying all past events in their correct temporal order. 34 is challenging and not shown here.

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    Last edited by Garandman; 09-18-20 at 05:45 PM.
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  6. #2856
    Lifer joeswamp's Avatar
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    Re: Nervous yet? covid-19

    Quote Originally Posted by nhbubba View Post
    I also feel that China should be pressured to do something about the conditions in those wet markets. They are clearly not safe. And now that China is connected to the rest of the world the consequences of their poor public health policy has impact on us all. We (the rest of the world, the UN, someone) should sanction them.
    The Chinese govt has been trying to crack down on these markets (especially since SARS) but it's really tough -- illegal ones spring up everywhere. They've had these markets for thousands of years, it's part of their culture over there to want to eat exotic animals. The problem is that the markets have multiplied along with Chinese wealth and that means many more crazy wild animals packed together in close quarters, which of course is an ideal situation for creating novel viruses.

    I've read that a lot of viruses originate from bats, as they can carry viruses for longer periods than other animals. It has something to do with their unusually high metabolism -- bats are the only mammals that can fly.

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  7. #2857
    Lifer Garandman's Avatar
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    Re: Nervous yet? covid-19

    UMass Amherst had a plan for students who wanted to return. But the RA’s union called the plan “suicidal” and the local townsfolk seemed quite hostile. Many students transferred or deferred. Then in late August the Chancellor made the following announcement.

    .... we project a $168.6 million loss in the campus’s operating budget, presenting our campus with one of the greatest financial challenges in our 157-year history. These losses for the fall semester include $67.4 million in housing and dining revenue, a projected $30.6 million decline in tuition revenue, and a $20.9 million reduction in other revenues, including grant and contract overhead income. Additionally, the Board of Trustees has directed the campus to budget for a contingency equal to a 10% hold-back in our state appropriation allocation ($36.7 million) due to uncertainties in the state budget, as well as other factors, including further potential pandemic-related losses or additional expenses throughout the year. We also project an increase in expenditure of $13 million in virus testing, safety, isolation and quarantine measures.
    https://www.umass.edu/coronavirus/ne...ersitys-budget

    They have made changes for the Spring semester so there is some chance for campus living then.

    My daughter is not doing well in the virtual program.

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    Last edited by Garandman; Yesterday at 10:17 PM.
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  8. #2858
    Lifer gixxer72's Avatar
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    Re: Nervous yet? covid-19

    Quote Originally Posted by Garandman View Post
    UMass Amherst had a plan for students who wanted to return. But the RA’s union called the plan “suicidal” and the local townsfolk seemed quite hostile. Many students transferred or deferred. Then in late August the Chancellor made the following announcement.



    https://www.umass.edu/coronavirus/ne...ersitys-budget

    They have made changes for the Spring semester so there is some chance for campus living then.

    My daughter is not doing well in the virtual program.
    ‘RA union’. WTF

    Meanwhile I’m paying for a kid to live on campus with access to almost nothing we are paying for and 100% virtual classes. I sense a gap year starting at the end of this semester. Hopefully many of these overcharging, dinosaur universities go under.

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  9. #2859
    Lifer SteveM's Avatar
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    Re: Nervous yet? covid-19

    We have remained on campus, we teach live people in live classes, every student is tested every week. There is a mix of in person and virtual classes. My largest class is 25.

    We’d love to have you...

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  10. #2860
    Lifer Falko's Avatar
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    Re: Nervous yet? covid-19

    Quote Originally Posted by Garandman View Post
    UMass Amherst had a plan for students who wanted to return. But the RA’s union called the plan “suicidal” and the local townsfolk seemed quite hostile. Many students transferred or deferred. Then in late August the Chancellor made the following announcement.



    https://www.umass.edu/coronavirus/ne...ersitys-budget

    They have made changes for the Spring semester so there is some chance for campus living then.

    My daughter is not doing well in the virtual program.
    I'm sure we'll get to bail them out. All universities are going through this unfortunately, but the non-state sponsored ones will have to find a way to get through, hopefully their endowments will hold up to the challenge. There is also discussion about the number of students deferring a year and then there being a reduced number of slots for graduating seniors from this year. I don't know how big of an impact it would really be, but the person I was talking to said it is a discussion so it must be of concern.

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