Welcome to NESR! Most features of this site require registration, including replying to threads, sending private messages, starting new threads, and uploading files. Click here to register.

View Poll Results: Should I run a raffle? How many tickets?

Voters
12. You may not vote on this poll
  • No, you won't sell enough

    2 16.67%
  • Yes, 60 tickets at $10 each

    6 50.00%
  • Yes, 120 tickets at $5 each

    2 16.67%
  • Yes, 12 tickets at $50 each

    2 16.67%
Page 4 of 4 FirstFirst 1234
Results 76 to 84 of 84

Should I run a raffle for the VIR trackday?

  1. #76
    Lifer oreo_n2's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2002
    Location
    Amherst, NH
    Posts
    4,837

    Should I run a raffle for the VIR trackday?


    it has everything to do with the problem definition. Not the numbers themselves.

    and degs... if you dont replace the drawn number, that reduces the set by one and odds go to 1/29... then 1/28 etc... dont keep halving it! (thats assuming no conditional probabilities)

    Honcl... i have to think about that, i'll get back to you tonight when i have more time.

    0 Not allowed! Not allowed!
    Brent LRRS #772
    2006 KTM 560 SMR

  2. #77
    Dic on
    Join Date
    Aug 2001
    Posts
    14,919

    Should I run a raffle for the VIR trackday?

    No, the number was replaced each time.

    When I was halving it, I was over simplifying it by stating that 2 numbers were then drawn out of a set of 30. It was a tongue-in-cheek analogy anyway. I wasn't serious.

    0 Not allowed! Not allowed!
    "Too bad ponies are assholes."

    OXX

  3. #78
    Lifer oreo_n2's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2002
    Location
    Amherst, NH
    Posts
    4,837

    Should I run a raffle for the VIR trackday?

    honcl.. you're an evil chicken effer... i couldn't concentrate on work after reading your problem...

    If all door choices and problem setup are independant (doubtful in reality, especially since if you dont get it right on your first guess, the game organizer will not show you the door with the prize ... he will rig his display to show you an empty door)

    anyways... in simplest forms, with lots of independance assumptions...

    it works out your odds of winning by switching are 2/3
    odds of winning by not switch 1/3

    you should switch.

    0 Not allowed! Not allowed!
    Last edited by oreo_n2; 01-12-05 at 04:48 PM.
    Brent LRRS #772
    2006 KTM 560 SMR

  4. #79
    Lifer oreo_n2's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2002
    Location
    Amherst, NH
    Posts
    4,837

    Should I run a raffle for the VIR trackday?

    Originally posted by Degsy
    No, the number was replaced each time.

    When I was halving it, I was over simplifying it by stating that 2 numbers were then drawn out of a set of 30. It was a tongue-in-cheek analogy anyway. I wasn't serious.
    thats ok, my argument was mostly bs... quoting stats i wanted to use to improve my odds... you were right initially... nevermind

    baaa.....

    we need to stop this discussion... too nerdy for a public forum.

    0 Not allowed! Not allowed!
    Brent LRRS #772
    2006 KTM 560 SMR

  5. #80
    Everybody to the limit!
    Join Date
    Apr 2003
    Location
    Winchester, MA
    Age
    41
    Posts
    6,856

    Should I run a raffle for the VIR trackday?

    Originally posted by oreo_n2
    honcl.. you're an evil chicken effer... i couldn't concentrate on work after reading your problem...

    If all door choices and problem setup are independant (doubtful in reality, especially since if you dont get it right on your first guess, the game organizer will not show you the door with the prize ... he will rig his display to show you and empty door)

    anyways... in simplest forms, with lots of independance assumptions...

    it works out your odds of winning by switching are 2/3
    odds of winning by not switch 1/3

    you should switch.
    Hehe, NEEERD!

    If it's any consolation, I also couldn't concentrate at work after trying to work through your problem.

    If I am thinking about this right, well, the odds of winning if 16 out of 30 tickets were sold assuming a random set of 16 would be 5/16 = .3125.

    Whereas if you assume a random set of 30, the odds would be, for n = 0 to infinity, Sigma((14/30)^n*(5/30)). Which from running through the first few of the series, approaches .3125 as n approaches infinity...

    So you're wrong, it is statistically fair I think

    But you got the Monty Hall problem right, which is pretty damn commendable.

    0 Not allowed! Not allowed!

  6. #81
    Everybody to the limit!
    Join Date
    Apr 2003
    Location
    Winchester, MA
    Age
    41
    Posts
    6,856

    Should I run a raffle for the VIR trackday?

    Originally posted by oreo_n2
    thats ok, my argument was mostly bs... quoting stats i wanted to use to improve my odds... you were right initially... nevermind
    Fucker, no, you're wrong! I proved you wrong (maybe, assuming I didn't fuck it up)! Don't admit it, that takes all the fun away!

    Man, sometimes I miss the squid, he never admitted he was wrong

    0 Not allowed! Not allowed!

  7. #82
    Lifer oreo_n2's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2002
    Location
    Amherst, NH
    Posts
    4,837

    Should I run a raffle for the VIR trackday?

    Originally posted by Honclfibr
    Hehe, NEEERD!

    If it's any consolation, I also couldn't concentrate at work after trying to work through your problem.

    If I am thinking about this right, well, the odds of winning if 16 out of 30 tickets were sold assuming a random set of 16 would be 5/16 = .3125.

    Whereas if you assume a random set of 30, the odds would be, for n = 0 to infinity, Sigma((14/30)^n*(5/30)). Which from running through the first few of the series, approaches .3125 as n approaches infinity...

    So you're wrong, it is statistically fair I think
    Blast You!!!

    Its simpler than that...
    one drawing would be ideal.

    my odds... initially 5/30 banking on 30 tickets being sold (~1/6).
    17 tickets sold. for "fairness"... make the drawing for a lesser prize based on the lesser prize sales... so the sample set becomes 17!
    then my 5 tickets odds are 5/17... (~1/3) almost doubled my odds!

    this would be an example of the kind of math politicians use.


    now... the method used for drawing... the random number generator based on a 30 sample set... as long as its really random (each drawing completely independant of all others and a really high seed value), and since numbers are being replaced... actually shows no bias to any of the 30 numbers, as you noted.


    i am not the squid, i dont come here to argue... but i do bust balls on a regular basis!

    0 Not allowed! Not allowed!
    Brent LRRS #772
    2006 KTM 560 SMR

  8. #83

    Should I run a raffle for the VIR trackday?

    --------------
    anyways... in simplest forms, with lots of independance assumptions...

    it works out your odds of winning by switching are 2/3
    odds of winning by not switch 1/3

    you should switch.
    -------------

    Explain this further, please.

    Either here or in an email direct to me.



    My brain is not grasping why your odds increase by switching.

    0 Not allowed! Not allowed!
    Tony
    Trackdays in CT, NY, and NH
    www.TonysTrackDays.com



    Pirelli Track Tires - www.goMTAG.com


  9. #84
    Everybody to the limit!
    Join Date
    Apr 2003
    Location
    Winchester, MA
    Age
    41
    Posts
    6,856

    Should I run a raffle for the VIR trackday?

    It seems to make more intuitive sense if there are 100 doors, with a prize behind only one door.

    You pick one, and your odds of being right are 1/100.

    Then, the host opens 98 out of the 100 doors to show you that they are empty. There are two doors left, and you are giving a chance to switch or stay. If you were right in the first place, the prize is behidn the door you've picked, otherwise it's behidn the other door. But there's only a 1/100 change that you picked right in the first place, so there's a 99/100 chance that the prize is behind the other door. Therefore, you switch, and that reverses your odds of getting a prize from 1/100 to 99/100.

    It's the same thing, only with occurences of 100 replaced with 3, 99 with 2, and 98 with 1. But when it's 3 doors rather than 100, it's harder to see intuitively.

    0 Not allowed! Not allowed!

Page 4 of 4 FirstFirst 1234

Similar Threads

  1. $20 Jeep raffle, very good cause
    By Awesome in forum Off-Topic
    Replies: 6
    Last Post: 09-15-05, 07:50 AM
  2. October Track Day Raffle
    By Stoneman in forum Track Day Forums
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 09-09-05, 10:22 AM
  3. Raffle tickets
    By dhuze in forum Off-Topic
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 08-21-05, 01:20 PM
  4. I HEARD THERE WAS A RAFFLE
    By Honclfibr in forum General Bike Related
    Replies: 4
    Last Post: 06-08-05, 11:55 AM
  5. Anyone want to buy a raffle ticket for a 954?
    By kmf in forum General Bike Related
    Replies: 6
    Last Post: 03-08-04, 10:14 PM

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •