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I have a 2x2 Titan Fitness full rack which I paid $330 for shipped. The 2x3 racks are nicer but I have found the 2x2 just fine. Mine is rated for 800...
It's not a gut feeling. It's actually pretty exact when you consider how I went about tracking it. When you think about it, physics are still in play...
I've actually found it's less efficient to fluctuate the temperature in the house. I know if you read up on the topic it comes across as indisputable...