[tonyd]

I'm in retail in the Upper Valley area, half way up the VT-NH border and we have had about 6 months of shitty business around here. I've talked with about 20 local business people who are all seeing the same thing. The news I'm reading about slow growth in the national economy but people just are not pulling out there wallets, we've seen same store sales strink 10-35% over last year in each of the last 4-5 months.

Any other New England area seeing this or is this a super local phenom?

[dhuze]

I think it's just a local thing. I build stores all over the country and I can't work fast enough. We have been out straight for the last year and a half. All the stores I have done have said the same thing about being a busy year for them.

[KillBill]

Originally Posted by tonyd

I'm in retail in the Upper Valley area, half way up the VT-NH border and we have had about 6 months of shitty business around here. I've talked with about 20 local business people who are all seeing the same thing. The news I'm reading about slow growth in the national economy but people just are not pulling out there wallets, we've seen same store sales strink 10-35% over last year in each of the last 4-5 months.

Any other New England area seeing this or is this a super local phenom?

I have two stores, one in southern NH and the other in Northern MA. At both locations we have seen a slight decrease by appox. 5% in the last few months. Everything that I have read and heard is that the economy both locally and nationally is on the upswing trend. I have to remind myself that in business everything is a cycle. There will ALWAYS be ups and downs and it's pertinent that you take advantage when you're up.

That's it for now

[Wishbone]

Originally Posted by KillBill

There will ALWAYS be ups and downs and it's pertinent that you take advantage when you're up.

That's it for now

when your flush you feel like you will never go down, and when your bust you never feel like you'll get up-George Jung

[tonyd]

I've been through the ups and downs before, just trying to figure out which way things will be headed around here for the rest of 07.


Strange thing is there have not been any negative factors at play in this area that have not hit the rest of the country. No layoffs, lots of jobs out there, and we are not really a tourist town so a crappy ski/snowmobile season shouldn't matter.

Thanks for the feedback fella's.

[RandyO]

I own a small land use consulting/land surveying firm

we are as busy as ever, but our clientel is smaller jobs that are steady even in slow economy, larger firms have slowed down, were not getting as many calls for the big jobs we would turn away anyway. the economy may or may not be slowing, but for sure, it's not growing as fast.

it's my experience over the years that the enginering end of development sees the slowdown first, then the construction,

as new box retail outlets open up, I suspect that the more regional centers like upper valley will see a slowdown, why drive 30 miles to walmart when you only have to drive 5 to the new one ? when the anchor stores loose customers to the center, the smaller local independents loose too. however, the big anchors are not looseing, they are gaining, just at another store.

[KevinB]

Yes, its slow.
I'm an electrical contractor and talking with other contractors, business is really soft in the residential market. I do mostly commercial type projects, my work is steady but I won't be breaking any records this year. I feel the housing market (home equity) has been fueling the economy for the last few years, but that game is over.

Who gets hurt if meltdown worsens? - Eye on the Economy - MSNBC.com

FROM THE LINK ABOVE

Jobs
Already, the downturn in the housing industry has taken a dent out of job growth.

Though the economy added 97,000 new jobs in February, employment in housing-related industries fell by 11,000 — bringing to 176,000 the total number of jobs lost in the sector since April 2006, according to figures compiled by Moodys.com.

That's a sharp contrast to the height of the housing boom in 2005-06, when the industry was responsible for creating some 25,000 to 50,000 new jobs every month.

Some of those jobs are directly related to housing construction. But the collapse of the subprime mortgage market means job losses for that sector of the financial services industry. At least 20 of these lenders have already gone out of business; major lenders with big subprime portfolios face big losses that may translate in to further layoffs. The full extent of the problem may not be known until the next round of profit reports from banks and other lenders.

Some have suggested that the Federal Reserve move to cut interest rates to help soften the impact. But with wages growing, the central bank is still officially more worried about inflation than recession.

Cutting rates could also extend the easy-money lending climate that created the mortgage markets problems in the first place, according to Sandy Rufenacht, a portfolio manager at Three Peaks Capital Management.

“We need to let some of this risk-based asset-taking mentality over the last several years kind of wash its way through,” he said. “If the Fed were to cut rates, it might now unnecessarily rescue some of these instances that I think maybe should play out.”

Consumers
While consumers continue to carry large levels of credit card debt, they seem to be keeping up with the payments.

“Delinquency rates on subprime auto loans and credit cards do not show anywhere near the deterioration as in mortgages,” said Vitner.

That’s further indication that the problem in the mortgage market is the result of bad lending decisions by mortgage brokers — rather than a wider weakening of consumer finances.

But if housing prices keep falling, that could further squeeze consumers’ pocket books. That’s because homeowners have not been shy about tapping into gains in home equity by refinancing — to the tune of more than $314 billion last year, according to the latest forecast from Freddie Mac, the government-chartered housing finance corporation.

The same forecast sees so-called cash-out refinancings falling this year — to $233 billion — and again to $154 billion in 2008.

By way of comparison, it took homeowners eight years to cash out $187 billion in home equity from the end of 1992 through 2000.