On average, how many riders go down on a track day?

[RyanNicholson]

don't ride over your head = much less risk of crashing.

run all the numbers you want, but you're pretty much the only one that regulates your level of risk out there. Its a 1.6 mile loop of pavement, nothing more, nothing less. Treat it that way and you'll be fine.

[Tricky Mike]

I think that trying a mathematical approach to whether you might crash at a trackday is going about it in completely the wrong way.

don't ride over your head = much less risk of crashing.

run all the numbers you want, but you're pretty much the only one that regulates your level of risk out there.

Bingo...
HOW a person rides has a lot more to do with crashing than "average numbers" could ever show. How likely is a crash when riding at 60% as opposed to 90%? Obviously you're a lot more likely to crash at 90%... and riding at 90% is a choice, made by the rider, that the numbers can't possibly reflect.

[taxonomy]

Ambulances roll very rarely at trackdays. I don't believe we have ever had an ambulance roll at a Boston Moto day.

I think that trying a mathematical approach to whether you might crash at a trackday is going about it in completely the wrong way.

I'm not trying to decide if I am going to crash at a track day or not. I am just trying to get a handle how much risk there is for the average rider at a track day. This is why we have the term average.

From people I have talked to and what seems to be conventional wisdom it would seem that you can expect someone to go down for every 2000 miles ridden. It's a ballpark number, just someplace to work from.

If anyone thinks this needs to be adjusted up or down I'd like to hear it.

[taxonomy]

Bingo...
HOW a person rides has a lot more to do with crashing than "average numbers" could ever show. How likely is a crash when riding at 60% as opposed to 90%? Obviously you're a lot more likely to crash at 90%... and riding at 90% is a choice, made by the rider, that the numbers can't possibly reflect.

But that's not the question. I am not asking why. I am asking how much. You are trying to turn a quantitative qualitative.

Insurance companies tends to reference risk by either "hours of exposure" or in transport "miles traveled". Just step back from the picture. Take a deep breath. Just look at the math.

[MysteriousR1]

I dont think averages really apply here. I guess you could come up with a average crash per miles, but its pointless. Its all up to you, if you push yourself or not. I did nine track days last year, crashed twice. But I was pushing myself and learned the hard way. Ride within your limits and enjoy!

[OreoGaborio]

There is for sure an agenda, I am trying to quantify the risk in riding track days. If numbers scare you, please step into the faith based line.

How often does an ambulance roll? No matter the nature of the roll, just how often does someone require attention no available at the track?

You're reading into the data way too much and trying to make the statistics into more than what they are. Looking at OTHER people's numbers won't tell you a thing about YOUR risk.

I've done about 10-15 track days over the last 4-5 years and I have only one track day crash. Some people have even better records than I do, some people's records are MUCH WORSE. It all hinges on YOUR mental approach.

[xrocket21]

I'm not trying to decide if I am going to crash at a track day or not. I am just trying to get a handle how much risk there is for the average rider at a track day. This is why we have the term average.

From people I have talked to and what seems to be conventional wisdom it would seem that you can expect someone to go down for every 2000 miles ridden. It's a ballpark number, just someplace to work from.

If anyone thinks this needs to be adjusted up or down I'd like to hear it.

mathematically it is "averageable"

but that average # is meaningless, there are too many variables.


It would be like taking the avg number of people who die using the statistic of 10/50 skydivers die, and 2/50 bowlers die, then saying 12% of bowlers and skydivers die



if that even makes any sense

[Pittenger5]

Insurance companies tends to reference risk by either "hours of exposure" or in transport "miles traveled".

They also refine their "average" by sex/type of car/primary purpose of car.

[taxonomy]

Looking at OTHER people's numbers won't tell you a thing about YOUR risk.

I am not wondering about my risk. It's a generalized question. It's about the activity as a whole, not about an individuals exposure. When I was surfing a lot people used to ask me about sharks. I would often reply well, about 2 millon people surf every year and there's about 3 shark attacks per decade in the United States. End of story.

I've done about 50-60 track days over the years, if not more and I have only one track day crash. Some people have even better records than I do, some people's records are MUCH WORSE. It all hinges on YOUR mental approach.

Keep up the good work.

[BLACK SQUIRREL]

There is for sure an agenda, I am trying to quantify the risk in riding track days. If numbers scare you, please step into the faith based line.

How often does an ambulance roll? No matter the nature of the roll, just how often does someone require attention no available at the track?

its not for everyone.

Some people should not ride at the track as some people should not ride on the street.

If you need math to tell you that you have already lost.

[FirstDuc-1098]

Tax, are you an insurance adjustor? Trying to arrive at a 'number' to write a policy?

at the 15 or so track days I've done over the last 3 years, I've seen no crashes to maybe 6 or 7 in a day. Again it all depends, on the weather, the number of riders, the attitude of the TD organization, the track layout and whether there is a full moon or not.

edit: I've never been down, started in novice, now running a fast intermediate with occasional advance sessions

[OreoGaborio]

Keep up the good work.

..... thanks for the encouragement.

Glad I could help.

[Tricky Mike]

But that's not the question. I am not asking why. I am asking how much. You are trying to turn a quantitative qualitative.

Insurance companies tends to reference risk by either "hours of exposure" or in transport "miles traveled". Just step back from the picture. Take a deep breath. Just look at the math.

No offense... Not trying to be a dick here. Seriously, I'm not. I completely understand what you're trying to do, I just don't think there's any real value in it and it's one of the most common misconceptions about trackdays.

[RyanNicholson]

I see what you're getting at, and my bad for misinterpreting your original intent.

But you're not going to find one TD regular here to agree with the legitimacy of your logic. Namely because any Joe Jackass can go out and think he's the next Valentino, but Luis Logical can go out and be perfectly safe given the same TD experience. It is what you make it.

[Jim]

not that i have a lot of TD experience, since last year was my 1st time on the track the only novices that seemed to crash were the ones that just bumped to the intermediate group, or were pushing themselves to bump to the intermediate group. or the ones pushing themselves to try and get a knee down. basically the ones that were trying to ride outside their abilities.

chances are you'll be out there riding very cautiously for the first 1/2 of the day, then get comfortable after lunch. then realize you were worrying way too much about nothing.

[drop]

Tax, are you an insurance adjustor? Trying to arrive at a 'number' to write a policy?

that's the feeling i was getting too.

tax, if you're trying to get statistics for the sake of a statistic-based purpose then just say so - you'll probably get more constructive responses when people aren't trying to convert your question into an opportunity to give you advice.

[CEO]

The problem is that you're trying to apply statistics and logic to observed data as if it is normally distributed or has a gaussian distribution or some other sensible and "averageable" distribution.

There are too many variables in this situation to treat it as such and any conclusions you come to (i.e. force to make or decide to make) are therefore meaningless.

edit: i.e. If you take a huge pool of data and average it and then try to apply the results to a given person thinking about attending a trackday, that application is only valid if the data is normally distributed. For track days, it simply isn't. Think of groups, percent of ability ridden at, track day company setup and attitude, weather, track, bike type, everything... it's not.

[BLACK SQUIRREL]

Tax, are you an insurance adjustor? Trying to arrive at a 'number' to write a policy?

I believe you mean an actuary The one who provides the models and formulas that Adjusters apply to write a policy.

[Pittenger5]

Maybe he's just trying to convince his wife to let him do a track day? And if thats the case, smack her in the mouth and tell her you have the dick so you make the rules.

Thats what the average man would do.

[OreoGaborio]

The problem is that you're trying to apply statistics and logic to observed data as if it is normally distributed or has a gaussian distribution or some other sensible and "averageable" distribution.

There are too many variables in this situation to treat it as such and any conclusions you come to (i.e. force to make or decide to make) are therefore meaningless.

edit: i.e. If you take a huge pool of data and average it and then try to apply the results to a given person thinking about attending a trackday, that application is only valid if the data is normally distributed. For track days, it simply isn't. Think of groups, percent of ability ridden at, track day company setup and attitude, weather, track, bike type, everything... it's not.

Thank you.

Tax, if you want mathematically calculated averages, you're not going to get them. If you want MY guestimates, here they are:

Riders / track day at NHMS - 75
Crashes / track day at NHMS - 5
Miles / rider / day at NHMS - 80

The problem is, that data varries WIDELY when you start looking at all of the individual riders, different tracks, events, conditions etc.

[taxonomy]

I am not an insurance adjuster. These sorts of ideas tend to clarify things for me.

The root function of track days are to make "pushing" safer. So, to some extent you can look at this and get some idea of how risky it is for riders to "push" their safety envelope. It will give you some sort of an idea about how much risk there is to operate somewhat beyond a riders normal operating envelope.

There will, of course, be objections much like those raised above "this doesn't account for morons" or whatever. But if you've read anything about safety margin consumption (people just drive faster when they know they have ABS brakes) or risk acceptance you'll find there are commonalities.

Anyhow, make what you want of this, and thanks to those that responded.

[03Worc9R]

Can anyone tell me how much it cost to build a house?

[taxonomy]

The problem is that you're trying to apply statistics and logic to observed data as if it is normally distributed or has a gaussian distribution or some other sensible and "averageable" distribution.

I have no reason to believe if I collected enough data the numbers wouldn't behave. Admittedly, with an N like this the degree of certiantly would be low.

Thanks for the "real math" break! I don't get many of those.

edit: i.e. If you take a huge pool of data and average it and then try to apply the results to a given person thinking about attending a trackday, .

I am not trying to do that. I am just thinking about "trackdays" as a whole.

[taxonomy]

Can anyone tell me how much it cost to build a house?

$100 per square foot, on average. YMMV

Is that better than no information at all?

[Pittenger5]

Is that better than no information at all?

Id vote no, because it doesnt actually give you information. What you're saying is 50% cost more, and 50% cost less. How much is my house gonna cost?
What decisions/questions/comments can you derive by saying the average house costs 100 dollars per square foot to build (serious question)