Should I run a raffle for the VIR trackday?

[Degsy]

I have been thinking about how to draw the number of the winner for the trackday and I think I have a good solution.

www.random.org has a true random number generator which I will use to pick the number. I have tested it and it works well.

Any objections?

derek

[Jank]

By testing you mean the number you were thinking of came up??

How could we object? Then our number would never come up!

[Awesome]

I'm all for it. Now I can finally win.

[Degsy]

OK, we have no more tickets sold so i will do the draw in a few minutes.

The winner will get $305 off the cost of the trackday, bringing the total cost for the double header trackday and hotel to $245


derek

[Degsy]

the drawing will be done at 12:00 according to the previously posted method.

derek

[cyberxen]

atmospheric noise is hard to hack.... damn.

[Degsy]

Anyone else who wants to enter has 2 minutes to indicate here that they want tickets. You can promise to pay, but you gotta pay!!

degs

[Degsy]

and the winning number is..........



























































22

[Creepy One]

I'll take one Degs.

[Jaynnus]

Draw again?

[Degsy]

Shit, no-one has 22.

[Degsy]

next number......
















































17

[Degsy]

Next number is.....


































4

[Degsy]

Originally posted by JimF
I'll take one Degs.

Sorry Jim, i had already started to get numbers from random.com so i couldn't add you after that.

[Degsy]

Mike Lazuka (cyberxen) wins a double-header trackday at VIR including hotel for $245, a pretty good deal.

Congrats Mike



derek

[highsider]

LMAO....no one wins, Degsy is going drinking with all of your money! HAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!

[Jaynnus]

Originally posted by Degsy
Mike Lazuka (cyberxen) wins a double-header trackday at VIR including hotel for $245, a pretty good deal.

Congrats Mike



derek

blah.....congrats Mike!!

[cyberxen]

BOOOOO YEAH PIMP DOGGY DOG BUMP!!!!

Who's ready for my acceptance speech?

[oreo_n2]

BOOOOO!!!! I demand a recount!!!!

Congrats Mike!

Actually though... statistically speaking... a true random number generator based on a 30 element set wasn't really "fair"
The set should have been limited to the number of entries (paid or promised to pay raffle tickets) and then the number generator would have been statistically fair. Oh well, i wasn't here to fight it! Have fun mike. i aint jealous or nothing.

[Awesome]

You mean, I didn't win......yet?

Mike, I'll give ya $20 for that deal you won....

[Degsy]

Originally posted by oreo_n2
BOOOOO!!!! I demand a recount!!!!

Congrats Mike!

Actually though... statistically speaking... a true random number generator based on a 30 element set wasn't really "fair"
The set should have been limited to the number of entries (paid or promised to pay raffle tickets) and then the number generator would have been statistically fair. Oh well, i wasn't here to fight it! Have fun mike. i aint jealous or nothing.

Hmm, depends on your definition of "fair". I believe it was equally fair (or equally unfair) to everyone in the group, right?

Problem was, some people wanted specific numbers so I couldn't just go from 1-16 or whatever it was.

derek

[Honclfibr]

Originally posted by Degsy
[B]Hmm, depends on your definition of "fair". I believe it was equally fair (or equally unfair) to everyone in the group, right?
[B]

I think cookie's just being a statistics nerd

Ok statistic nerd, there are three doors, behind one of the doors is a prize and you are told to choose a door. After you choose your door, one of the two doors your have not chosen is opened to show that there is no prize behind that door, and you are given the chance to stay with your original choice, or switch to the unopened door you haven't chosen. Do you stay, or do you switch?

[oreo_n2]

well... i dont want to get too far into it... cause i dont want to give away too much of my dork level... but... for future reference i guess...

the original number set, proposed for the raffle was based on a sample set of 30 raffle tickets. Odds were 1 in 30 per ticket purchased based on sale of all tickets.

Not all tickets sold, so the raffle was for a discount based on actual ticket sales, so odds should have been altered accordingly, meaning the sample set should have been reduced to 16, making odds of a random choice being 1 in 16. everyone could have kept their numbers... (i am sure this would have led to controversy) but just map them to the numbers output from the number generator. (just dont tell em i guess?)

anyways, by leaving the sample set at 30, and drawing til you get a winner, well that complicates the odds... permutations get involved, ( i am not about to bring the math to a motorcycle forum ) and i dont know if the first numbers chosen that didn't work were eliminated from the sample set after it turned out to be a dud (adds more math to it)


it doesn't really matter, cause even with a small sample set like this... i would still lose, thats just my luck.
So that makes this argument a bunch of semantics in an attempt to improve my odds... and its obviously too late.

[Degsy]

I studied statistics a few years back (OK alot of years back) and it seems like everything was fair.

30 numbers allocated.
17 numbers sold.

Random number generated gives any one of the 17 taken numbers a 1 in 30 chance of coming up. This gives everyone a 1 in 30 chance of winning for every number purchased.


(the rest of this is questionable statistically and open to interpretation)

When the second number was pulled out, that means that 2 numbers had been pulled which means that everyone had a 1 in 15 chance of their number being one of the two. When the third number was pulled, that meant that everyone had a 1 in 7.5 chance of having one of the numbers being theirs. Oreo had 5 numbers in the raffle which statistically speaking, when you do all the equations and factor in all the chances and likelihoods, means...


























Brent is one hell of an unlucky bastard!

[cyberxen]

I don't see how the process falls in favor of any one particular number.